Google’s AI Overview now appears on 88% of 400 tracked U.S. desktop commercial keywords, according to a 12-month Semrush study published October 21. Weighted by search volume, coverage reaches 97.08%. In September 2025, the baseline was 45.75%. The buying-stage search funnel didn’t erode. It inverted.
The study, run by the Adobe-owned analytics firm, grouped keywords by five decision-stage modifiers (reviews, best-X-for-Y, brand-versus-brand, alternatives, price) across three industries: banking, software, and ecommerce. Twelve of the fifteen resulting cells finished at or above 80%. Three hit 100%: best-X-for-Y in banking, alternatives in software, and best-X-for-Y in software. The “reviews” modifier moved furthest, from 30.14% to 89.04%. Brand-versus-brand queries climbed from 63.41% to 86.59%. The “best X for Y” group ended at 96.12%.
Caveats are real. Search Engine Land notes the panel is U.S. desktop only and tracks no change in clicks or conversions. PPC Land points out that 400 keywords split across 15 cells leaves fewer than 27 per cell, meaning a single keyword can swing a cell by three to five points. But the direction is corroborated: Search Engine Roundtable’s October 26 recap cites Semrush, SE Ranking, and seoClarity data showing AI Overviews now surface on over 80% of Google searches generally, and a DesignRush roundup frames related data suggesting a 70% cut to top commercial clicks.
The more useful finding is in Semrush’s worked example. For “mailchimp vs klaviyo,” the AI Overview quotes Klaviyo’s own guide (“Choose Klaviyo if…”) alongside Zapier (“Choose Mailchimp if you run a general small business…”). The brand page is one of several citations, not the frame around them. Semrush’s own language is dry about what this means: “The answer people see when searching ‘[your brand] vs. [competitor]’ can draw on YouTube videos, reddit threads, and review sites, as well as your own site and your competitor’s,” and “ranking number one likely won’t lead to as much traffic as it did this time last year.”
Read structurally, this closes a loop Google has been drawing all autumn. AI Mode is already a live customer channel reshaping existing campaigns, and for shopping queries the universal cart now lives inside the search result itself. The commercial SERP, once a ranked list of ten blue links a brand could compete on, is now a synthesized answer the brand gets quoted inside, or doesn’t.
The question SEO teams have asked since Overviews launched was whether this was a feature or a replacement. Semrush’s twelve months of data suggest the answer isn’t ambiguous anymore. It’s the shape of the funnel now.
Sources
- https://www.semrush.com/blog/ai-overviews-commercial-modifiers-study/
- https://searchengineland.com/google-ai-overviews-nearly-double-commercial-keywords-498078
- https://ppc.land/google-ai-overviews-now-hit-88-of-tracked-commercial-keywords-semrush-finds/
- https://www.seroundtable.com/recap-10-26-2026-42374.html
- https://news.designrush.com/seo-news-update-recap-ahrefs-skewed-data-ai-overviews